BUSINESS MODEL ON RICE IRRIGATION SYSTEMS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT STOCHASTIC FACTORS

Abstract

Economic indicators and the state of natural resources form the basis of the set of factors of economic activity. Forecasting the development prospects of any enterprise is possible provided that full, reliable and objective information is available at all stages and about the conditions under which it is carried out. In modern conditions, it seems relevant to develop methodological issues of analysis of economic activities of enterprises in conditions of uncertainty due to climatic factors and stochastic nature of soil properties. The subject of the study is a methodology for modeling the activities of management structures on rice irrigation systems in conditions of uncertainty. The authors propose to characterize the mode of functioning of the rice irrigation system from a probabilistic point of view, to assess the consequences of anthropogenic load, considering operational measures by the Poisson flow of a certain intensity. This approach allows you to consider uncertainty in terms of probabilistic distributions. In these assumptions, an expression is obtained for the optimal volume of Qopt measures intended for execution. The results of research can be used by employees of the agro-industrial complex in making managerial decisions on the rice irrigation system.