FORECAST OF ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY OF MILK PRODUCTION IN THE CENTRAL BLACK EARTH REGION
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Abstract
The purpose of the study is to substantiate the forecast of the economic efficiency of milk production in the Central Black Earth Region until 2033. The forecast is based on the data presented in the UniSIS, by extrapolating the revealed patterns for the period of the forecasting horizon. The article presents the results of research on forecasting the economic efficiency of milk production in the Central Black Earth Region. The forecast of the level of demand, based on actual data on the level of per capita milk consumption in the subjects of the Central Black Earth Region, showed that in the Belgorod region in the period 2022-2033. demand for milk is expected to grow, in other regions a negative downward trend is observed. According to the forecast in the macroregion by the end of the forecast period, demand will amount to 1,616.5 thousand tons, which is 45.0 thousand tons less than its actual level in 2019. The forecast of milk import and export to the Central Black Region allows us to consider the region as a donor, since the forecast level of export exceeds import by more than 2.8 times. In all constituent entities, an increase in the unit production costs for milk production is forecasted. Their maximum level is noted by 2033 in the Tambov region - 30.5 thousand rubles. for 1 ton. For the same period, a forecast of growth in prices for raw milk was calculated, which allows us to assert that the maximum price level by 2033 will be reached in the Tambov region - 40.0 thousand rubles. per 1 ton, and the minimum is 30.1 thousand rubles. for 1 ton - in the Belgorod and Kursk regions. Taking into account the predicted dynamics of price growth, it can be argued that on average in the macroregion by 2033 the profitability in milk production will be 20.0%, and among the subjects of the Central Black Earth Region the maximum level - 31.2% - will be achieved in the Tambov region.
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